Huffpo's Sam Stein hopefully cites a couple of polls indicating the senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey is tightening.

He quotes the usual analysts citing the effectiveness of Sestak's negative ads blaming Toomey for the economy for being a "Wall Street trader" and another accusing him of being an actual traitor, saying he'd be a better senator for red China, than the United States. And then there's the one that claims he against helping returning soldiers and veterans. Pretty rough and nasty stuff.

Toomey has pretty much stayed on the high road, focusing on Sestak's record of big spending votes and showing video clips of Sestak saying he would have voted bigger stimulus ($1 trillion), more punative cap and trade bill, and greater government control of healthcare.

Sestak continues to sail into political headwinds.

At the bottom of Stein's piece, he gets real:

The likelihood of a Sestak win still remains remote. Earlier in the week, Nate Silver, the polling analyst for FiveThiryEight, penned a piece casting doubt on both internal polls showing a closing gap and the broader prospects of a Sestak comeback. The underlying skepticism of prognosticators, meanwhile, hasn't gone away. In a year in which Republican enthusiasm has dwarfed the opposition, the challenge of getting registered Democrats to the polls is difficult. But in Pennsylvania, it's not impossible.

"I think, until elections are over, everyone is concerned. All you have to do is win by a vote," said Bravacos. "The Republicans always win in September and Democrats always house their money until the end.... So of course it is going to tighten. If you get a 52-48 win in Pennsylvania that's a big margin."

Essential for Sestak is the black vote. If African Americans don't turn out in large numbers, he's sunk.