Tuesday, November 6, 2012

A Good Day for Regime Change... Or Not!

Spencerblog will traveling the county today, visiting a number of polling places and talking to voters. You can check in here for an anecdotal pulse of the county.

Later, DT Editor Phil Heron and I will be at county Democratic and Republican headquarters live streaming at Delcotimes.com as the returns come in.

As far as predicting the outcomes, here goes:

In the county all the incumbents win. Not because they so much deserve to hold office on their own merits but because they are simply the lesser of two evils, though evil is too strong a word.

Senator Zero wins but O doesn't. That's O for Obama.

I has felt for sometime that the justifiable drop off in enthusiasm for this president would make it difficult for him to win reelection. Mitt Romney has proven himself a viable alternative for many Independent voters. Also recent polls show there are slightly more voters identifying themselves as Republicans than Democrats for the first time in history. Given the rebuke voters gave the president's agenda in 2010, it's hard to believe a majority of them will vote to reelect him. But stranger things have happened.

The NYT's brilliant electoral prognosticator Nate Silver is saying that there is something like a 90 percent chance of Obama being reelected. He bases this mostly on the polls in the battleground states. His only caveat is that if those polls are "biased" in favor of the incumbent, Romney could eek out a victory. My sense is that they are. But then, I'm a little biased myself.

Silver gives Romney only a 16 percent change of winning. That seems odd given that national polls have the race a dead heat, with Obama having only the slightest of slight edges in the electoral college.

Of course, it all comes down to who turns out to vote. Which reminds me...

See you at the polls.

UPDATE: In an otherwise sensible column, which predicts a Romney victory, Larry Kudlow writes:
I am not blaming Barack Obama for all the country‚Äôs ills. He was dealt a very bad hand. But he chose the wrong course. He relies too much on big government and too little on the enterprise of ordinary people. He is operating a historically discredited model.
Actually it was the country that was dealt a bad hand and it was Barack Obama we picked to play it. He asked for the job claiming to understand how lousy the hand was. He not only played it badly, he and his Democratic cheerleaders went all in with $820 billion of OUR money. After the flop, Fiscal Reality had the nut flush. Phil Ivey for President.


Blogger MediaMike said...

For my predction I'll go:

Obama 51.5% Romney 48 % 3rd party votes .5%.

Electoral College: Obama 303 Romney 235.

Swing states:
Obama: MN, WI, IA, OH, PA, NH, VA, NV, NM, CO.

Romney: FL, NC

November 6, 2012 at 11:47 AM 

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