The Specter-Sestak race comes down to the wire.

Win or lose, I think Specter is toast as a U.S. Senator. If he wins tomorrow, he loses in the fall to Pat Toomey. It's already been a very tough year for incumbents but especially for Democratic incumbents.

All signs point to a squeaker tomorrow but it may not be. Specter could lose big or win big, all depending on who turns out. Sestak will need a pretty big turn out to overcome the party establishment and special interests lined up behind Specter.

An underdog win would make him a darling of the progressive left nationally, but that could leave Sestak to the left of a majority of Pennsylvania voters.

He is a big government Democrat at a time when people are more cynical and suspicious of Washington than they have been for decades. Specter typifies that cyncism. Changing policies, changing faces, changing parties for no other reason to keep his job.

A lot of Democrats are going to have a hard time pulling the lever for Specter tomorrow. I don't blame them. The question they have to ask themselves is who will be the better candidate against Pat Toomey in the fall.

Right now, it looks to me like either of them will lose come November.