Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Apocalypse Not

The invaluable George Will recounts the virtues of human ingenuity.
In 1980, economist Julian Simon made a wager in the form of a complex futures contract. He bet Paul Ehrlich (whose 1968 book “The Population Bomb” predicted that “hundreds of millions of people” would starve to death in the 1970s as population growth swamped agricultural production) that by 1990 the price of any five commodities Ehrlich and his advisers picked would be lower than in 1980. 
Ehrlich’s group picked five metals. All were cheaper in 1990.
The bet cost Ehrlich $576.07. But that year he was awarded a $345,000 MacArthur Foundation “genius” grant and half of the $240,000 Crafoord Prize for ecological virtue. One of Ehrlich’s advisers, John Holdren, is Barack Obama’s science adviser.


Blogger CharlieSix said...

It seems to me that the moral of the story is that the loser is the winner. And if we look with any measure of truth at 2008, we see the direct opposite: The winners were and will remain the losers until they have lost in November 2012. Only if the winners in 2008 become losers will the country become a winner again.

August 28, 2012 at 8:44 PM 

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home